Something is changing in the American church.
That was the opening line of the first chapter of Change Your Church or Die when I wrote it years ago. At the time, I pointed to declining Southern Baptist membership and baptisms, aging congregations, and churches struggling to reach a new generation. I wrote, “The ship is taking on water. If we don’t change we will die.”
A lot has changed since then. So, what does the American church look like today?
The answer is more complicated—and perhaps more hopeful—than it was when I first wrote those words.
Christianity Has Lost a Lot of Ground
The long-term numbers are sobering. According to the 2025 Religious Landscape Study from Pew Research Center, 62 percent of American adults now identify as Christians. In 2007, it was 78 percent. The Protestant share has fallen even more dramatically, from 51 percent of American adults in 2007 to 40 percent today. Meanwhile, roughly three in ten Americans are now religiously unaffiliated. (Pew Research Center)
Perhaps even more striking is what has happened to people raised in the church. Pew estimates that 21.9 percent of all American adults were raised Christian but no longer identify as Christian. Only 3.6 percent have moved in the opposite direction—becoming Christians after being raised outside Christianity. Put into actual people, Pew estimates that more than 57 million American adults have left Christianity. (Pew Research Center)
Those numbers should get the attention of anyone who cares about the future of the church.
But they don’t tell the whole story.
Something Else Is Changing Too
Pew’s latest research contains a surprising development: the decades-long decline of Christianity appears to have slowed dramatically and may, at least temporarily, have leveled off.
Since about 2020, Pew has repeatedly found the Christian share of American adults hovering between 60 and 64 percent. The religiously unaffiliated population has similarly remained in a relatively narrow range of 28 to 31 percent. Pew is appropriately cautious about predicting the future, but something has clearly changed in the trajectory. (Pew Research Center)
And there is another trend that I find even more fascinating.
Young adults may be coming back.
Barna Group reported in 2025 that Millennials and Gen Z Christians were attending church more frequently than older generations. The typical Gen Z churchgoer was attending 1.9 weekends per month and the typical Millennial churchgoer 1.8 times per month—the highest rates Barna had recorded for these generations. (Barna Group)
That trend has continued to show up in newer research. In March 2026, Barna reported that 45 percent of Protestant senior pastors said they had seen increased engagement from Gen Z during the previous year, while 42 percent reported increased engagement among Millennials. Forty percent reported increased engagement specifically among men ages 18–35. (Barna Group)
That doesn’t sound like a dying church to me.
It sounds like an opportunity.
But Church Attendance Doesn’t Mean What It Used to Mean
There is another change pastors need to understand. Even people who consider themselves regular churchgoers don’t necessarily attend every Sunday.
Barna found that churched adults now attend an average of only 1.6 times per month—roughly two out of every five weekends. (Barna Access)
That has enormous implications for church leadership. Suppose you preach a four-week sermon series. A person with today’s average attendance pattern may hear only one or two sermons. You announce an event for three Sundays and assume everyone has heard about it. Many haven’t. You are trying to build momentum in a ministry, but the people involved aren’t necessarily together every week.
The old assumption that our core people will be sitting in the same pew 50 Sundays a year no longer works.
This doesn’t necessarily mean they have abandoned Christianity. It means the rhythms of church participation have changed. Churches need to think differently about communication, discipleship, small groups, volunteer ministry, digital communication, and maintaining relationships with people between Sundays.
The Fields May Be Whiter Than We Think
When I originally wrote Change Your Church or Die, I argued that declining churches should not conclude that Americans were simply unreachable. I pointed to growing churches in America and explosive Christian movements overseas as evidence that “the fields really are white unto harvest.”
I would make that argument even more strongly today.
There are certainly reasons for concern. Christianity has lost considerable ground in America. Millions of people raised as Christians no longer identify as Christians. Many congregations remain older and smaller than they once were.
But at the same time, younger Christians are attending more frequently. Pastors are reporting increased Gen Z and Millennial engagement. And Pew has found that while 28 percent of Americans say they have become more religious during their lives and 29 percent say less religious, 43 percent say they have become more spiritual, compared with only 11 percent who say they have become less spiritual. (Pew Research Center)
There is spiritual hunger out there.
The question is whether our churches are prepared to meet it.
Your Church Is Perfectly Tuned to Get the Results You Are Getting
That brings me back to the premise of Change Your Church or Die: “Your church is perfectly tuned to get the results you are now getting.”
If we keep doing exactly what we have been doing, we shouldn’t be terribly surprised if we keep getting what we have been getting.
This doesn’t mean changing the gospel. It doesn’t mean changing Scripture to accommodate the culture. Jesus Christ is the same yesterday, today, and forever.
But our methods are not sacred.
Our schedules aren’t sacred. Our programs aren’t sacred. Our preferred musical styles aren’t sacred. Sunday School isn’t sacred. Small groups aren’t sacred. Buildings aren’t sacred. The way we communicate isn’t sacred.
The mission is sacred.
And perhaps that is the great opportunity facing churches in 2026. We don’t need to panic about the future of Christianity. Jesus has been building His church for two thousand years, and He isn’t about to stop now.
But individual churches can miss what God is doing.
Something is changing in the American church. In some ways, the changes are frightening. In other ways, they are enormously encouraging. A generation that many people assumed was lost may be more spiritually interested than we thought.
Maybe the question is no longer simply, “How do we stop the decline?”
Maybe a better question is, “How must we change to take advantage of the opportunity God is putting in front of us?”
